Nebraska resurgence just the latest Matt Rhule college football rebuild bearing fruit

The clearest evidence of Nebraska’s growth under second-year coach Matt Rhule can be found in the number next to its name.

The undefeated Cornhuskers popped into the US LBM Coaches Poll two weeks ago at No. 24, the program’s first national ranking since Sept. 1, 2019, and rose to No. 22 after last Saturday’s win against Northern Iowa. Remarkably, this marks Nebraska’s highest spot in the Top 25 since ranking No. 15 on Nov. 20, 2016.

“I always say that in college football, if you’ve had greatness in your past you can have it in your future,” said Big Ten Network analyst and former Indiana coach Gerry DiNardo. “Nebraska’s the one that’s been testing my theory.”

That 2016 season doubles as the Cornhuskers’ last bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the Power Four. After losing four in a row last November to end Rhule’s debut one win shy of bowl eligibility, the postseason drought appears guaranteed to end this year.

But there is the potential for more. Three games into this season and with Friday night’s Big Ten opener against Illinois to come, four factors combine to suggest Nebraska could continue to climb the national rankings and contend for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff: the coach, the quarterback, the schedule and the quantifiable progress made since Rhule’s arrival almost two years ago.

"The challenge I’ve had for the players all year is to go be one of the best teams in the country," Rhule told USA TODAY Sports. "Go be relevant nationally. Go play in big games. Go challenge to win the Big Ten. Go challenge to go to the College Football Playoff. I told them it’s going to be hard. That things have to go your way. But I’ve said that to them from day one."

Matt Rhule's predictable second-year bump

History is repeating itself, only at a faster pace than before.

For Rhule, previous stints at Temple and Baylor followed a similar script. The first season would be a foundation-building struggle for wins: Temple won twice and Baylor, wrecked by widespread roster attrition in the wake of the Art Briles era, would win just once.

But then came the turnarounds. Temple won six games in 2014 but was not selected for a bowl game, a fact that helped motivate the Owls to 20 wins and an American Athletic championship the next two seasons. Baylor jumped to seven wins in 2018 and then to 11-3 in 2019, finishing second in the Big 12 and reaching the Sugar Bowl. Rhule was then hired by the Carolina Panthers and lasted two-plus seasons in the NFL, going 11-27.

In comparison, Nebraska is ahead of schedule. Along with a solid talent base and enviable internal backing, the adversity the program faced during a difficult 2022 season — former coach Scott Frost was fired in September and the team limped to a four-win finish — convinced Rhule the Cornhuskers were ready to skip the first-year rebuild and go directly to bowl contention.

“When I got here, there were such good players and there was such energy from the older guys to try to win,” Rhule said. “I just said, ‘Hey, let’s not do year one. Let’s not go 2-10. Let’s do year two.' Which has always been 6-6, 7-6, you know. Unfortunately, we finished 5-7. But it was that growth.”

One year later, the Cornhuskers have added key pieces at quarterback, running back and wide receiver to bring last year’s dilapidated offense more in line with one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. They’ve adopted a physical style of play that fits snugly into the historic ethos of a program that once defined consistent excellence on the Bowl Subdivision level. They’ve embraced the mindset of “chasing three,” meaning the three points that separated last season’s squad from getting to six or more wins.

After several failed hires and more than two decades since the program’s last serious gasp of national relevance, an experienced coach has started to reverse Nebraska’s steady decline.

“You always want to feel like they got it right. Every time you’re hoping it’s the right person,” DiNardo said. “The difference for Matt Rhule, to me, is the experience at Temple, the experience of Baylor.”

Dylan Raiola’s immediate impact

The son of an iconic former Nebraska offensive lineman and the nephew of the team's current offensive line coach, Dylan Raiola was verbally committed to Ohio State and Georgia before flipping to the Cornhuskers in the weeks leading into national signing day.

His impact has been profound and immediate. The former five-star prospect is completing 73.8% of his throws for 670 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. A year ago, three Nebraska quarterbacks combined for 1,631 yards and 10 touchdowns against 16 interceptions while hitting on 52.1% of attempts.

He’s been helped by an offensive line that looks dramatically improved. This group has allowed just one sack and paced a running game that has scored multiple touchdowns in all three games, the program’s longest such streak since the first three games of the 2022 season.

Raiola has influenced the offense through his “maniacal” work ethic, Rhule said: “He prepares higher than anyone I’ve had.”

The challenge moving forward will be adapting to the variety of defenses in the Big Ten, most rooted in a level of physicality that demands a balanced offensive response.

“He’s not some kid out here in some spread, tempo-style offense throwing RPOs,” said Rhule, meaning the run-pass option plays widely used across the FBS. “He’s throwing drop back. He’s throwing seven-step drops. He’s throwing play action. He’s making checks on the line of scrimmage. He’s playing like an NFL quarterback in terms of the style of play.”

And after failing to get the ground in 2023, the Raiola-led offense now has an identity.

“We take pride in being physical in the fourth quarter,” said offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield. “That’s where the game is won, that’s where you put people away.”

A friendlier Big Ten schedule

On paper, the schedule unfolds in a way that could leave the Cornhuskers unbeaten heading into a matchup at No. 2 Ohio State to end October.

Illinois is followed by a trip to Purdue, which lost 66-7 last Saturday to Notre Dame. Then Nebraska hosts Rutgers, has an off week and travels to Indiana on Oct. 19. The program hasn’t won six in a row to open a season since winning seven in a row to open 2016.

After facing the Buckeyes, the Cornhuskers take on UCLA at home, have another off week, travel to No. 12 Southern California and host Wisconsin before capping the regular season with the rivalry at Iowa.

"Especially in today’s football, you never know how teams are going to be,” Rhule said. “Illinois now is ranked, right? I think in two weeks when we play Rutgers, they’re going to be ranked. I think when we play Indiana, they’re going to be ranked. It’s just the recognition that hey, everyone is a good team. We try to stay focused on our process.”

But they miss No. 6 Oregon, No. 9 Penn State and No. 17 Michigan, placing this among the program’s friendliest Big Ten schedules since joining the conference. Along with obvious on-field improvement, this schedule provides a one-two punch that suggests Nebraska will be a factor in the playoff deliberations set to begin in early November.

The avenue opened by the new 12-team playoff format also can’t be ignored. Under the previous model, no team reached the playoff with more than one loss. The larger format changes the math: Instead of needing to go 13-0 or 12-1 to make the field, the cutoff point for at-large bids from the Big Ten and SEC could be 10-2 or even 9-3, depending on the contender’s strength of schedule.

Is the best yet to come for Nebraska?

Even if this season ends at eight wins and in the second tier of the Big Ten, that measurable progress would lock Nebraska into a national ranking heading into the 2025 season and paint the program as one to closely monitor in the Power Four.

That level of hype is already beginning to percolate on the recruiting trail. After signing a top-20 class last winter, Nebraska hosted dozens of top recruits for the Week 2 win against Colorado, a 28-10 final that highlighted the widening chasm of space between the Cornhuskers and their longtime rival.

“If you’re a kid that wants to play in the NFL, you should probably consider playing for us,” said Rhule. “I think we can recruit at the highest level.”

But the deepest well of optimism springs from the concept that Rhule has built conference champions under some of most adverse circumstances in the sport — at a Temple program that historically ranks among the weakest in the country and in the wake of one of college football’s worst scandals at Baylor. In comparison, Nebraska has the tradition and a degree of institutional support matched by only a small sliver of the FBS.

That has left a feeling that a return to major-bowl contention is, at a minimum, lurking somewhere around the corner. It may be this season. Raiola has changed the complexion of the offense and will only get better with every week; transfers in the backfield and at receiver had made immediate impacts; the defense, buoyed by the return of multiple players who could’ve dipped into the NFL draft, should stay among the four or five best in the Big Ten.

Maybe this is the year the Cornhuskers pop. Maybe it’s next year. But the Nebraska renaissance feels closer than at any point during the program’s 21st century malaise.

“I’ve said all the time, it’s not a matter of if, it’s just a matter of when,” Rhule said. “I’m not sure if it’s this year — I hope it is. But I expect us to get better and better and better.

“Because I’m not here for a short fix. I’m here for the long haul. So it would be great if we could do it this year, but I’m trying to build something, along with (athletics director Troy Dannen) and our staff, we are trying to build something that will last.”